**Cocoa Prices Surge Amid Supply Changes and Weather Concerns**
On Tuesday, July ICE NY cocoa (CCN26) closed up 3.06%, gaining 116 points, while July ICE London cocoa #7 (CAN26) also rose by 3.06%, up 88 points. This rise follows a 6% drop over the previous three sessions and is attributed to fund short covering amid bearish supply forecasts from the Ivory Coast, which has boosted its cocoa delivery estimate for the 2025/26 season to 2.2 million metric tons (MMT) from a prior 1.8-1.9 MMT. Cumulative cocoa shipments from the Ivory Coast for the current marketing year reached 1.61 MMT, up 1.9% year-on-year.
Additionally, looming weather factors are influencing prices, with the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration estimating an 82% probability of El Niño conditions emerging, which could impact cocoa production in West Africa. Despite global demand concerns reflected in recent cocoa grindings data, where North American and European figures decreased by 3.8% and 7.8% year-on-year, respectively, some analysts maintain bullish forecasts due to potential production declines in other regions, including Nigeria, where cocoa exports fell by 35% year-on-year in March.
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