On March 29, 2026, cocoa prices displayed mixed trends: May ICE NY cocoa rose 1.82% to $60 per ton, reaching a two-week high, while May ICE London cocoa fell 0.48%. The price fluctuations are attributed to ongoing drought conditions in West Africa, with over half of the Ivory Coast and two-thirds of Ghana experiencing drought, as reported by the African Flood and Drought Monitor.
Current shipping data indicates that cocoa deliveries in the Ivory Coast reached 1.43 million metric tons this marketing year, down 0.7% year-over-year. Concerns about chocolate demand are also notable, with early estimates predicting a 5% decline in chocolate candy sales for the upcoming Easter holiday. The Commitment of Traders report highlights a significant increase in short positions in London cocoa, which could prompt a short-covering rally.
Global cocoa supply is under scrutiny, with ICE cocoa inventories recently rising to an 8.25-month high of 2,362,668 bags. Additionally, Ghana announced a nearly 30% cut in the official price paid to cocoa farmers, while the Ivory Coast is set to reduce payments by 57%. In contrast, projections for cocoa production in 2025/26 suggest a decline of around 10.8% in the Ivory Coast.
