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March ICE NY cocoa (CCH26) rose by +39 (+0.71%) and March ICE London cocoa #7 (CAH26) increased by +24 (+0.59%) today. This follows a recent upward trend in cocoa prices, influenced by the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) reducing its 2024/25 global cocoa surplus estimate to 49,000 MT from 142,000 MT, and lowering its production estimate from 4.84 MMT to 4.69 MMT.
Data from the Ivory Coast indicates that cocoa shipments from October 1 to November 30 totaled 718,451 MT, a 2.1% decrease compared to 734,026 MT in the same period last year. Additionally, ICE cocoa inventories in US ports fell to an 8.5-month low of 1,709,185 bags. Meanwhile, cocoa grindings in Q3 fell by -17% y/y in Asia and -4.8% y/y in Europe, with North American chocolate sales down over -21% for the 13 weeks ending September 7.
As for the outlook, Nigeria’s cocoa production is projected to decline by -11% y/y for the 2025/26 crop year, while the ICCO noted a global cocoa deficit of -494,000 MT for 2023/24, the largest in over 60 years, further shaping the current cocoa market.
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