On March 29, cocoa prices settled mixed with May ICE NY cocoa closing up +45 (+1.36%), reaching a two-week high, while May ICE London cocoa #7 declined by -17 (-0.68%). Dry conditions in West Africa, particularly in the Ivory Coast and Ghana—where over half the land is experiencing drought—are heightening concerns over cocoa supplies.
According to data, the Ivory Coast has shipped 1.43 million metric tons (MMT) of cocoa during the current marketing year, a decrease of -0.7% from the previous year. Additionally, ICE cocoa inventories have risen to an 8.25-month high of 2,365,789 bags. Demand concerns are prevalent, with early estimates projecting a -5% decline in chocolate sales for the upcoming Easter holiday compared to last year.
Furthermore, the International Cocoa Organization has raised its global 2024/25 cocoa surplus estimate to 75,000 MT. This follows a period in which production has reportedly increased by +8.4% year-over-year, reflecting mixed signals for cocoa prices amid a combination of supply concerns and lower consumer demand.
