September ICE NY cocoa (CCU26) rose +29 (+0.55%) and September ICE London cocoa #7 (CAU26) increased by +49 (+1.23%) on Friday, following a rebound after two weeks of declines. The drop in U.S. dollar value provided some support to cocoa prices.
U.S. President Trump announced broad Section 301 tariffs between 10% and 12.5% on 60 nations, effective late Thursday. However, these tariffs will not impact U.S. cocoa imports, as they exclude food products. Meanwhile, cocoa supply data indicates that Ivory Coast shipments for the current marketing year have risen by 21% to 2.10 million metric tons, and Nigerian exports saw a 30% year-on-year increase in June to 18,922 metric tons.
Cocoa inventories rose to a two-year high of 3,308,066 bags, heightening bearish sentiment, despite a forecasted global cocoa surplus drop from 415,000 metric tons in 2025-2026 to 80,000 metric tons in 2026-2027. Weather concerns, particularly due to an expected strong El Niño, threaten to further impact cocoa yields in West Africa.
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