On Monday, May ICE NY cocoa (CCK26) closed up +59 (+1.83%), while May ICE London cocoa #7 (CAK26) rose by +42 (+1.81%). The price increase follows a significant 5.73% rally last Friday, attributed to rising shipping costs and supply concerns linked to the ongoing conflict in Iran that threatens the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
As of March 1, 2026, the Ivory Coast has recorded cocoa shipments totaling 1.35 million metric tons (MMT), a decrease of 3.6% compared to 1.40 MMT during the same period last year. In contrast, the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) has updated the global cocoa surplus for the 2024/25 season to 75,000 MT, with production expected to increase by 8.4% year-over-year to 4.7 MMT. Additionally, ICE cocoa inventories have surged to a 6.75-month high of 2,220,846 bags, chiefly due to weak demand as major cocoa buyers refuse to pay the high official farm-gate prices in the Ivory Coast and Ghana.
Global cocoa grindings have also seen a decline, with Q4 2022 European grindings down 8.3% year-over-year to 304,470 MT—the lowest in 12 years. Ghana has cut its cocoa farmer pay by nearly 30% for the 2025/26 growing season, while the Ivory Coast will similarly reduce payments by 57% starting March. The weakening demand for chocolate, highlighted by a 22% drop in sales volume from Barry Callebaut AG, further complicates the outlook for cocoa prices.
