On Thursday, July ICE NY cocoa (CCN26) closed down by 107 points (-2.63%), while July ICE London cocoa #7 (CAN26) fell by 68 points (-2.21%). Concerns over chocolate demand following Barry Callebaut’s revised sales volume projections have negatively impacted cocoa prices, which are further pressured by rising inventories, now at a 1.75-year high of 2,913,278 bags as of Wednesday.
Weather patterns are posing risks, with the US NOAA projecting an 82% chance of an El Niño developing by July, potentially harming West African cocoa production. In the current marketing year, the Ivory Coast reported cocoa shipments of 1.66 million metric tons—a 1.8% increase from the previous year. Meanwhile, reports indicate that North American cocoa grindings fell 3.8% year-on-year in Q1, highlighting weak global demand, although Asian grindings surprisingly rose by 5.2%.
Nigerian cocoa exports dropped 20% year-on-year in April, with forecasts indicating an 11% decline in production for 2025/26. The situation is compounded by drought conditions affecting more than half of the Ivory Coast and two-thirds of Ghana, crucial cocoa-producing regions.
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