As of today, May ICE NY cocoa has declined by 2.09% to $3,290 per ton, while May ICE London cocoa #7 has dropped 1.07% to $2,307 per ton. This downturn follows an improved supply outlook, particularly from West African farmers reporting beneficial rainfall for cocoa pod development in the Ivory Coast and Ghana.
ICE cocoa inventories also reached a 7.25-month high of 2,295,996 bags as of Tuesday, contributing to the downward pressure on prices. Notably, cocoa exports from the Ivory Coast are down 2.8% year-on-year, totaling 1.37 million metric tons for the current marketing year. Despite recent cocoa price cuts in the region, demand concerns persist, as reflected by a 22% decline in sales volume reported by Barry Callebaut AG in its cocoa division for the quarter ending November 30, 2022.
Looking ahead, the International Cocoa Organization has raised its global cocoa surplus estimate for 2024/25 to 75,000 metric tons, reflecting anticipated production increases. However, projections indicate a potential surplus of 287,000 metric tons in the 2025/26 season, underscoring the ongoing challenges within the cocoa market.
