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On Wednesday, December ICE NY cocoa (CCZ25) closed down 74 points (-1.10%), marking an 11-month nearest-futures low, while December ICE London cocoa #7 (CAZ25) fell 40 points (-0.85%) to a 19-month low. This decline is attributed to an outlook of abundant global cocoa supplies, particularly due to surging cocoa deliveries in Ghana.
Cocoa arrivals at Ghanaian ports from August 7 to September 4 reached 50,440 metric tons (MT), a significant rise from approximately 11,000 MT during the same period in 2024. The International Cocoa Organization’s revised estimates indicate a 2023/24 global cocoa deficit of 494,000 MT, the largest in over 60 years, with production falling by 13.1% year-on-year to 4.380 million MT.
Weak demand has also contributed to lower prices, with European cocoa grindings down 7.2% year-on-year to 331,762 MT in Q2, and Asian grindings falling 16.3% to 176,644 MT, their lowest in eight years. The forecast for Ghana’s 2025/26 crop is optimistic, with production projected to increase by 8.3% to 650,000 MT, potentially further affecting cocoa prices.
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