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On Friday, March ICE NY cocoa (CCH26) closed at $5,158, down -123 (-2.33%), while December ICE London cocoa #7 (CAZ25) closed at $3,798, down -97 (-2.50%). Cocoa prices fell sharply, hitting a 1.75-year low in London, primarily due to a proposed one-year delay in the EU’s Deforestation Regulation, easing supply concerns for imports from deforestation-affected regions.
Expectations of a bumper cocoa crop in West Africa contributed to the decline, with Mondelez reporting cocoa pod counts 7% above the five-year average. The Ivory Coast’s cocoa shipments from October 1 to November 16 reached 516,787 MT, down 5.7% year-on-year. A projected global cocoa deficit of -494,000 MT for 2023/24, the largest in over 60 years, was reported by the International Cocoa Organization.
Global cocoa grindings showed significant declines with Asia down -17% y/y and Europe down -4.8% y/y in Q3. Meanwhile, shrinking ICE cocoa inventories in US ports reached an 8.25-month low of 1,733,345 bags, while Nigeria, predicting an -11% drop in cocoa production for 2025/26, reported unchanged cocoa exports of 14,511 MT in September.
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