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On October 30, 2023, cocoa prices fell sharply, with December ICE NY cocoa closing down 2.17% and December ICE London cocoa down 3.23%. This decline is attributed to expectations of a global cocoa surplus fostered by favorable weather in West Africa, where the cocoa pod count is reported to be 7% above the five-year average, according to chocolate maker Mondelez.
The Ivory Coast, the world’s leading cocoa producer, saw cocoa exports drop 24% year-on-year for the marketing year starting October 1, amounting to 215,219 MT. Concurrently, cocoa inventories in U.S. ports fell to a seven-month low of 1,842,022 bags. Despite a 3.2% increase in North American cocoa grindings, overall global demand remains weak, with significant declines reported in both Asia and Europe.
In Ghana, cocoa arrivals surged to 50,440 MT in the four weeks ending September 4, compared to about 11,000 MT during the same period in 2024, while Nigeria projects a production decline of 11% for the upcoming cocoa year. The International Cocoa Organization anticipates a global cocoa surplus of 142,000 MT in 2024/25, following a revision of the current global cocoa deficit to 494,000 MT.
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