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On December 1, 2023, cocoa prices fell sharply on the ICE market, with December NY cocoa down 2.80% to $6,029 and December London cocoa down 2.55% to $4,347. This marks a one-week low following five-week highs earlier in the week, attributed to expectations of a strong cocoa harvest in West Africa.
Reports indicate that Ivory Coast cocoa farmers have a 7% higher cocoa pod count than the five-year average. Nonetheless, concerns over dampened chocolate demand are growing, with North American chocolate sales down over 21% within the last 13 weeks and significant declines also reported in Q3 Asia and European cocoa grindings.
Furthermore, Nigeria’s cocoa production is projected to fall by 11% year-on-year for the 2025/26 crop year, which could further influence market dynamics. The International Cocoa Organization has also revised the 2023/24 global cocoa deficit estimate to 494,000 MT, the largest deficit in over six decades.
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