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As of today, December ICE NY cocoa (CCZ25) is down 1.16% at -73, and December ICE London cocoa #7 (CAZ25) is down 1.20% at -52, marking a 20-month nearest-futures low for London cocoa. Prices are under pressure due to the Ivory Coast and Ghana’s recent decision to increase payments to farmers, potentially boosting cocoa supplies.
Cocoa deliveries in Ghana surged to 50,440 metric tons in the four weeks ending September 4, compared to approximately 11,000 metric tons in the same period last year. Furthermore, the International Cocoa Organization has revised its 2023/24 global cocoa deficit to 494,000 metric tons, the largest in over 60 years, while projecting a surplus of 142,000 metric tons for 2024/25.
Concerns over demand have been highlighted by a 7.2% year-over-year decline in Q2 European cocoa grindings to 331,762 metric tons, and significant reductions in Asian and North American cocoa grindings were also reported. Prices are further pressured by Ghana’s anticipated crop increase of 8.3% year-over-year for the 2025/26 season, with expectations for improved production from the Ivory Coast as well.
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