As of today, September ICE NY cocoa (CCU25) has decreased by 286 points (-3.41%), while September ICE London cocoa #7 (CAU25) has dropped 215 points (-3.88%), primarily due to weakening cocoa demand. Barry Callebaut AG, a leading chocolate manufacturer, has revised its sales volume guidance downward for the second time in three months, anticipating a decline in full-year sales volume and experiencing its largest sales drop in a decade during Q3.
Cocoa prices have been under pressure as global cocoa production appears to be increasing, with Ghana projected to boost its 2025/26 cocoa crop by 8.3% year-over-year to 650,000 MT. Additionally, Ivory Coast cocoa exports have slowed, with recent shipments rising only 6.2% year-over-year compared to a 35% increase seen in December. Despite high inventories in U.S. ports, which reached a 10-month high of 2,363,861 bags earlier this month, quality concerns are mounting for the currently harvested mid-crop cocoa in the Ivory Coast, where about 5% to 6% of the crops are being rejected by processors due to quality issues, down from 1% during the main crop.
Further bearish indicators include a decline in global cocoa grindings, with North American, European, and Asian categories falling by 2.5%, 3.7%, and 3.4% year-over-year, respectively. The International Cocoa Organization has also revised its forecast for the 2023/24 global cocoa deficit to 494,000 MT, marking the largest deficiency in over 60 years.
