**Cocoa Prices Decline Amid Demand Concerns and Increased Supply**
On October 4, 2023, cocoa prices fell, with December ICE NY cocoa (CCZ26) closing down 0.76% at -41 and December ICE London cocoa #7 (CAZ26) down 0.72% at -29. This decline follows a reduction in projected organic sales growth from Lindt & Sprungli, which now estimates 0% to 2% for 2026, citing “subdued consumer sentiment.”
The Ivory Coast, the world’s largest cocoa producer, reported cocoa shipments of 2.18 million metric tons (MMT) from October 2025 to September 2026, an increase of 19.8% year-over-year. This coincides with rising global cocoa inventories, which reached a 2.25-year high of 3,481,504 bags, suggesting an oversupply in the market. In contrast, Ghana’s Cocoa Board anticipates a 13% drop in its cocoa crop for 2026/27 to 650,000 MT, which may support prices in the long term due to concerns over weather and diseases affecting cocoa trees.
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