As of today, July ICE NY cocoa (CCN25) has decreased by 63 points (-0.64%), while July ICE London cocoa #7 (CAN25) is down 169 points (-2.56%). This decline is attributed to a stronger dollar and favorable rainfall forecasts in Western Africa.
Notably, Nigeria reported an 11% year-over-year decline in cocoa exports for April, totaling 18,561 metric tons, which supports cocoa prices despite indications of rising inventory levels. Currently, ICE-monitored cocoa inventories in U.S. ports peaked at 2,269,384 bags, marking an 8-3/4 month high after hitting a 21-year low earlier this year. Additionally, the Ivory Coast’s cocoa exports have only increased by 7.2% this marketing year, signaling tighter future supplies.
The International Cocoa Organization has revised its forecast for the 2023/24 global cocoa deficit to 494,000 metric tons, the largest deficit in over 60 years. Production is expected to fall by 13.1% year-over-year to 4.38 million metric tons, while a global surplus is anticipated in 2024/25 with production projected to rise by 7.8% year-over-year to 4.84 million metric tons.
