On Friday, July ICE NY cocoa (CCN25) closed down by 90 points (-0.91%), and July ICE London cocoa #7 (CAN25) fell by 169 points (-2.56%). The decline in cocoa prices is attributed to a stronger dollar and favorable rainfall forecasts in Western Africa, amid concerns over reduced global commodity demand due to potential conflicts in the Middle East.
Nigerian cocoa exports showed an 11% year-over-year decline for April, totaling 18,561 metric tons, while current cocoa inventories in U.S. ports have increased to a 9-month high of 2,275,693 bags. Additionally, the Ivory Coast has shipped 1.64 million metric tons of cocoa this marketing year, which is up by 7.2% from last year but has slowed considerably since December’s 35% increase.
The International Cocoa Organization revised its 2023/24 global cocoa deficit forecast to 494,000 metric tons, marking the largest deficit in over 60 years. It also noted a 13.1% drop in cocoa production to 4.380 million metric tons, and a low stocks-to-grindings ratio of 27.0%. Future projections anticipate a global cocoa surplus of 142,000 metric tons for 2024/25, with production expected to increase by 7.8% year-over-year.
