Cocoa prices fell significantly on Friday, with May ICE NY cocoa (CCK26) down by $76 (-2.28%) and May ICE London cocoa #7 (CAK26) down by $41 (-1.67%). This decline is attributed to a stronger dollar, which negatively impacted cocoa rates, and an improved supply outlook due to consistent rains benefiting pod development in Ivory Coast and Ghana, the two largest cocoa producers.
As of Friday, ICE cocoa inventories reached a 7.5-month high of 2,326,443 bags. Cumulative cocoa shipments from Ivory Coast for the current marketing year (October 1, 2025, through March 15, 2026) were reported at 1.37 million metric tons, down 2.8% from the previous year’s 1.41 million metric tons. Demand pressures persist, with Barry Callebaut AG reporting a 22% decline in cocoa division sales volume for Q4 ending November 30, and European cocoa grindings down 8.3% year-over-year for the same quarter.
Looking ahead, the Ivory Coast anticipates a 10.8% decrease in cocoa production for the 2025/26 season, projecting a total of 1.65 million metric tons, while global cocoa production for 2024/25 is expected to rise by 8.4% to 4.7 million metric tons, resulting in a surplus.
