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As of today, cocoa prices have dropped significantly, with December ICE NY cocoa down 2.09% to $132 and December ICE London cocoa #7 down 3.50% to $158. This decline is attributed to a global cocoa surplus anticipated from favorable West African weather, which has resulted in a cocoa pod count 7% above the five-year average according to chocolate maker Mondelez.
From October 1 to October 26, cocoa exports from the Ivory Coast decreased by 24%, with shipments totaling 215,219 MT compared to 284,633 MT the previous year. Additionally, ICE-monitored cocoa inventories in US ports have reached a seven-month low of 1,843,721 bags. However, weak global demand has further pressured prices, as reported grindings for Q3 in Asia fell 17% year-on-year and in Europe fell 4.8% year-on-year, marking the lowest for Q3 in a decade.
Furthermore, Ghana’s cocoa arrivals surged to 50,440 MT over a four-week period, significantly higher than the 11,000 MT reported in the same timeframe last year. In contrast, Nigeria’s cocoa production is projected to decline by 11% year-on-year to 305,000 MT in the 2025/26 crop year.
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