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On Friday, December ICE NY cocoa (CCZ25) closed down -200 (-3.64%) and December ICE London cocoa #7 (CAZ25) fell -37 (-0.90%), reaching 1.75-year lows amid a sell-off influenced by expectations of possible tariff cuts on cocoa. US Treasury Secretary Bessent indicated substantial tariff announcements would come soon, affecting crops not grown in the US, including cocoa.
Reports suggest a strong cocoa crop in West Africa, with Mondelez indicating that the latest cocoa pod count is 7% above the five-year average. In the largest cocoa-producing country, Ivory Coast, recent shipments were down -9% year-on-year, totaling 411,979 MT. Additionally, Q3 cocoa grindings dropped significantly—-17% in Asia and -4.8% in Europe—while North American chocolate sales volume fell over -21% in recent weeks.
The International Cocoa Organization revised its 2023/24 global cocoa deficit to -494,000 MT and projected production to fall by -13.1% year-on-year to 4.380 MMT. However, a surplus of 142,000 MT is expected for the 2024/25 season, marking the first surplus in four years.
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