On Monday, July ICE NY cocoa (CCN26) closed down by 3.93% at -135, while May ICE London cocoa #7 (CAK26) also fell 3.93% to -99. Cocoa prices are declining due to robust supplies and weak demand, with Ivory Coast cocoa shipments reaching 1.51 million metric tons (MMT) in the current marketing year, up 0.7% from a year ago.
Sales of chocolate candy in North America decreased by 1.3% for the 13 weeks ending March 22, and Bloomberg Intelligence reported a 5% decline in chocolate sales over the recent Easter holiday. Additionally, Q1 cocoa grindings fell 3.8% in North America to 106,087 metric tons (MT) and 7.8% in Europe to 325,895 MT, marking the lowest levels in 17 years for the latter. Contrarily, Asian grindings rose by 5.2% to 223,503 MT.
Drought concerns persist in the Ivory Coast and Ghana, with nearly 30% cuts in farmer payments announced by Ghana and 57% by the Ivory Coast for the 2025/26 season. The Ivory Coast projected a production drop of 10.8% to 1.65 MMT for 2025/26. Global cocoa production has seen an increase of 8.4% to 4.7 MMT, resulting in a surplus estimate for 2024/25 raised to 75,000 MT.
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