On Thursday, September ICE NY cocoa (CCU25) closed at -341 (-3.98%), while September ICE London’s cocoa #7 (CAU25) closed at -197 (-3.41%). This sell-off follows a two-month high earlier in the week, driven by concerns over dry weather in West Africa, particularly affecting the Ivory Coast and Ghana, which have seen below-average rainfall.
According to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, rainfall in these regions remains below the 30-year average, threatening cocoa crop development. U.S. cocoa inventories fell to 2,234,877 bags, a two-month low. The pace of cocoa exports from the Ivory Coast showed a year-to-date increase of +6.6% at 1.78 million metric tons, but projections for Nigeria suggest an 11% production decline to 305,000 metric tons in the 2025/26 crop year.
Weak chocolate demand is also impacting prices, with major brands like Lindt reporting significant declines in chocolate sales, and the European Cocoa Association noting a -7.2% year-on-year drop in Q2 cocoa grindings. Conversely, Ghana’s cocoa production is expected to rise by +8.3% to 650,000 metric tons for the 2025/26 harvest.
