On Tuesday, May ICE NY cocoa fell by $207 (-6.40%), marking a one-month low, while May ICE London cocoa #7 dropped $128 (-5.21%), reaching a 1.5-week low. This decline is attributed to increased cocoa supplies from the Ivory Coast, where farmers shipped 1.45 million metric tons (MMT) of cocoa from October 1, 2025, to April 4, 2026, a 0.7% increase from the same period last year.
Weak chocolate demand is compounding the price drop, with Bloomberg Intelligence estimating a 5% decline in chocolate candy sales for the upcoming Easter holiday. Furthermore, ICE cocoa inventories rose to a 19-month high of 2,417,397 bags, while Ghana and the Ivory Coast, which produce over half of the world’s cocoa, announced significant cuts in prices paid to farmers—nearly 30% and 57%, respectively—for the upcoming growing season.
In related developments, cocoa grindings reported an 8.3% year-on-year decrease in Europe, the deepest drop in 12 years, while Nigerian cocoa exports increased by 17%. The International Cocoa Organization raised its global 2024/25 cocoa surplus estimate to 75,000 MT, the first surplus in four years, adding further pressures on prices.
