On December 4, 2026, cocoa prices fell sharply, with December ICE NY cocoa (CCZ26) down 7.07% to $4,508 and December ICE London cocoa (CAZ26) down 6.63% to $3,959, marking a seven-week low amid expectations of ample supplies. The downturn is linked to increased cocoa output in the Ivory Coast, which reported a harvest of 2.06 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2025-26 season, a 30% rise from the previous year, and a shipping increase of 2.14 MMT in the current marketing year, an 18% spike year-over-year.
Growing inventories have also contributed to price pressure, with ICE cocoa stocks reaching a two-year high of 3,436,742 bags earlier this month. Ghana’s cocoa regulator has proposed a 6% pay increase for farmers in the 2026-27 season, which may impact future supply dynamics as farmers potentially hold back sales. Furthermore, Ghana’s 2026-27 cocoa crop is projected to decrease by 13% to 650,000 MT due to adverse weather conditions.
Despite bearish trends, there are mixed indicators for cocoa demand; while the European Cocoa Association reported a 4.6% decline in Q2 cocoa grindings, North America saw a 7.7% increase. The market remains watchful of weather patterns, particularly the El Niño phenomenon, which may further impact cocoa production in West Africa.
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