Cocoa prices on Monday, July 10, 2023, fell significantly, with July ICE NY cocoa closing down 211 points (-5.27%) and July ICE London cocoa down 159 points (-5.24%). This drop follows a week-long decline, with prices hitting two-week lows after reaching 3.75-month highs the previous week, driven by reports of increasing cocoa supplies.
The Ivory Coast raised its 2025/26 cocoa delivery estimate to 2.2 million metric tons (MMT) from a prior forecast of 1.8-1.9 MMT, citing favorable weather. As of May 17, farmers had shipped 1.61 MMT of cocoa to ports this marketing year, a 1.9% increase compared to the same period last year. In addition, ICE cocoa inventories rose to a 1.75-year high of 2,668,548 bags on May 7, signaling abundant supply.
However, weak global demand also poses a challenge, with first-quarter cocoa grindings down 3.8% year-over-year in North America and 7.8% in Europe. Notably, the International Cocoa Organization raised its global 2024/25 cocoa surplus estimate to 75,000 MT, the first surplus in four years, bolstering concerns over price stability as the market adjusts to shifts in supply and demand dynamics.
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