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As of today, December ICE NY cocoa (CCZ25) is down 302 points (-4.17%) at a 10.5-month low, while December ICE London cocoa #7 (CAZ25) is down 152 points (-3.01%) at a 2.25-month low. The drop in prices is attributed to beneficial rains in the Ivory Coast, which is expected to improve the region’s cocoa crop, with the latest cocoa pod count reported at 7% above the five-year average, according to Mondelez.
Government data shows that Ivory Coast farmers have shipped 1.82 million metric tons (MMT) of cocoa from October 1 to September 21, marking a 4.6% year-over-year increase, although this is down from a +35% increase seen in December. Tighter cocoa inventories have been recorded, with ICE-monitored cocoa inventories in US ports at a 4.5-month low of 2,022,316 bags. Despite this, weakness in global cocoa demand contributed to the bearish trends, with Q2 grindings in Europe falling 7.2% year-on-year.
The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) revised its 2023/24 global cocoa deficit to 494,000 MT, the largest in over 60 years, while projecting a surplus of 142,000 MT for 2024/25. The Ghana Cocoa Board also anticipates an increase in Ghana’s 2025/26 cocoa production by 8.3% year-over-year to 650,000 MT.
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