Cocoa prices are experiencing significant declines, with March ICE NY cocoa futures down 7.26% at $3,803 and March ICE London cocoa #7 down 6.90% at $2,736. This marks the lowest recent prices in over two years, driven by high global inventories and reduced demand, which includes a reported 54,799 MT in Nigerian cocoa exports—a 17% year-over-year increase.
Abundant cocoa supplies have been highlighted by the International Cocoa Organization’s (ICCO) report of a projected global cocoa surplus of 287,000 MT for the 2025/26 season. Additionally, the European Cocoa Association noted an 8.3% year-over-year decline in Q4 grindings to 304,470 MT, the lowest for a Q4 in 12 years, reflecting ongoing demand concerns in the chocolate market.
Meanwhile, as of February 8, 2026, Ivorian cocoa shipments were reported at 1.27 MMT, down 3.8% from the previous year, although favorable growing conditions in West Africa signal potential for improved harvests. The ICCO has revised its global cocoa production estimates lower and has indicated a significant cocoa deficit of 494,000 MT for the 2023/24 season.
