Cocoa prices have dropped significantly, with July ICE NY cocoa down 266 points (-2.68%) and July ICE London cocoa down 202 points (-3.14%). These declines come as London cocoa reached a 2-1/2 week low, driven by forecasts of rain in West Africa that are expected to boost cocoa crops.
Current cocoa inventories have risen to a 9-month high of 2,310,539 bags as of Tuesday, a rebound from a 21-year low recorded in January. This follows reports of decreasing cocoa exports from the Ivory Coast, which shipped 1.66 MMT of cocoa, reflecting a 6.4% increase year-over-year but down from previous months. In Nigeria, April cocoa exports fell 11% year-over-year to 18,561 MT, further indicating potential supply issues.
The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) has revised its 2023/24 global cocoa deficit to -494,000 MT, marking the largest deficit in over 60 years, with production expected to decrease by 13.1% year-over-year to 4.38 MMT. Additionally, North American cocoa grindings fell 2.5% year-over-year in Q1, reflecting weakened demand amid economic pressures and rising prices.
