On Wednesday, September ICE NY cocoa closed up 1.37% at $76 and September ICE London cocoa rose 0.86% by $35 after experiencing a sharp drop of over 4% the previous day. The decline on Tuesday was attributed to reports of favorable growing conditions in the Ivory Coast and Ghana, leading to increased flowering ahead of the main cocoa harvest starting next month.
In cumulative data from the Ivory Coast, farmers have shipped 2.11 million metric tons (MMT) of cocoa to ports in the current marketing year, marking a 20% increase from the same period last year. Meanwhile, Ghana’s cocoa output for the current marketing year is reported at 750,000 MMT, up 25.6% from the 2024/25 season. However, projections indicate a potential decline to between 450,000 MMT and 550,000 MMT for the 2026/27 season due to factors such as aging farms and the El Niño weather pattern, which may adversely impact future yields by stressing cocoa trees.
Additionally, UK cocoa grindings in Q2 fell 4.6% to 316,366 MT, the lowest in six years, whereas North American grindings rose by 7.7% to 109,659 MT. Asian cocoa demand improved with a 25% increase in grindings to 224,646 MT. Despite rising cocoa inventories reaching a two-year high of 3,384,965 bags, they have since decreased to 3,335,795 bags.
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