Cocoa prices fell to 2.5-week lows today, with May ICE NY cocoa down $97 (-3.00%) and May ICE London cocoa #7 down $67 (-2.79%). This decline is primarily attributed to a stronger dollar and an anticipated bumper cocoa crop from West Africa, where consistent rains have improved pod development in the Ivory Coast and Ghana.
Ample supplies are also impacting prices; ICE cocoa inventories reached a 7.75-month high of 2,348,743 bags on Tuesday. Ghana has significantly lowered the official price paid to its cocoa farmers by nearly 30% for the 2025/26 season, while the Ivory Coast announced a 57% pay cut for the mid-crop harvest, which began this month, affecting more than half of the world’s cocoa production.
Weak demand for chocolate, coupled with lower cocoa grindings—such as an 8.3% year-over-year drop reported by the European Cocoa Association—has pressured prices further. The International Cocoa Organization has raised its global 2024/25 cocoa surplus estimate to 75,000 MT, marking the first surplus in four years.
