Cocoa prices rose on Monday, with March ICE NY cocoa closing at $42.45 per ton (+1.08%) and March ICE London cocoa at $30.84 per ton (+2.88%), as signs of slowing shipments from the Ivory Coast prompted short covering. Cumulative data reported that Ivory Coast cocoa farmers shipped 1.23 million metric tons to ports for the current marketing year (October 1, 2025, through February 1, 2026), marking a 4.7% decrease compared to 1.24 million metric tons during the same period last year.
The decline in shipments comes amidst ongoing concerns about cocoa demand, highlighted by a 22% drop in sales volume reported by Barry Callebaut AG for its cocoa division in the quarter ending November 30. Recent grinding reports indicated an 8.3% year-over-year decline in Q4 European cocoa grindings, reaching the lowest level for a Q4 in 12 years. In contrast, forecasts from organizations like StoneX project a global cocoa surplus of 287,000 metric tons for the 2025/26 season and a tightening global supply outlook, with ICCO revising its 2023/24 global deficit to a record 494,000 metric tons.
