As of today, September ICE NY cocoa (CCU24) is up +194 (+2.22%), while September ICE London cocoa #7 (CAU24) has risen +16 (+0.25%). A weaker dollar contributed to the increase in cocoa prices, despite a stronger British pound limiting gains in London cocoa.
Concerns over dry weather in the top cocoa-producing countries—Ivory Coast and Ghana—have led to a significant decrease in cocoa production, with Ivory Coast shipping 1.67 million metric tons (MMT) from October 1 to August 11, a 28% decline year-on-year. Additionally, ICE-monitored U.S. cocoa inventories have dropped to a 4.5-year low of 2,789,343 bags.
Looking ahead, forecasts suggest that next season’s cocoa production in Ghana could rebound to 700,000 MT, while Ivory Coast’s production is projected to fall to an eight-year low of 1.75 MMT, marking a 21.5% year-on-year decrease. The International Cocoa Organization also anticipates a 439,000 MT cocoa deficit for the 2023/24 season, exacerbating concerns over cocoa bean availability.
