March ICE NY cocoa futures closed on January 15, 2024, with a gain of $98, or 1.83%, reaching higher prices after recovering from six-week lows. Concurrently, March ICE London cocoa #7 futures increased by 24, or 0.61%. The growth in cocoa prices is attributed to a weaker dollar stimulating short covering, as well as expectations that the inclusion of cocoa futures in the Bloomberg Commodity Index this week may attract up to $2 billion in buying.
Specifically, cocoa shipments from the Ivory Coast, the world’s top cocoa producer, were reported at 1.13 million metric tons (MMT) for the current marketing season (October 1 through January 11), reflecting a 2.6% decrease from 1.16 MMT during the same period last year. Additionally, ICE-monitored cocoa inventories in U.S. ports rose to a five-week high of 1,675,908 bags, although they had previously reached a 9.75-month low of 1,626,105 bags on December 26, 2023.
Global cocoa forecasts suggest tightening supply, with the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) reducing its surplus estimates for 2024/25 and indicating a projected 4.69 MMT in global cocoa production, down from an earlier estimate of 4.84 MMT. Meanwhile, Nigeria’s cocoa production is anticipated to fall by 11% year-on-year to 305,000 MT for the 2025/26 crop year.
