Cocoa prices surged on Friday, with March ICE NY cocoa (CCH26) climbing by 3.77% to close at +112, and March ICE London cocoa #7 (CAH26) increasing by 6.25% to +133. This rebound follows a significant decline that saw cocoa futures hit a 2.75-year low amid weak demand and strong global supplies.
The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) reported a projected global cocoa surplus of 287,000 metric tons (MT) for the 2025/26 season. Additionally, Ghana has cut its cocoa farm-gate prices by nearly 30% for the upcoming season, while the Ivory Coast is considering a 35% reduction. Together, these two countries produce more than half of the world’s cocoa. ICE cocoa inventories reached a 5.25-month high of 2,087,755 bags, reflecting reduced buyer activity at current price levels.
Recent data indicate that Q4 cocoa grindings in Europe fell by 8.3% year-on-year to 304,470 MT—the lowest figure for a Q4 in 12 years. In contrast, Nigeria reported a 17% increase in cocoa exports in December, totaling 54,799 MT. Factors such as favorable harvest conditions in West Africa and lower production in Nigeria may further impact cocoa pricing as the season progresses.
