As of today, July ICE NY cocoa (CCN25) has risen by 233 points (+2.39%) and July ICE London cocoa #7 (CAN25) increased by 108 points (+1.68%). This increase comes after early losses, attributed to a weakening dollar index (DXY00), alongside slower cocoa exports from Ivory Coast, which have totaled 1.66 million metric tons (MMT) from October 1 to June 15—representing a 6.4% increase from last year but less than the 35% rise seen in December.
Concerns around consumer demand are also affecting the cocoa market. Major chocolate producers like Barry Callebaut AG and Hershey Co. have faced declines in sales and anticipate additional costs due to tariffs, which could lead to higher chocolate prices. The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) has projected a global cocoa deficit of 494,000 MT for the 2023/24 period, increasing from a previous estimate of 441,000 MT, with production expected to drop 13.1% year-on-year to 4.380 MMT.
Recent cocoa grindings statistics indicate a decline in demand with North American grindings down 2.5% year-on-year to 110,278 MT, European grindings down 3.7% to 353,522 MT, and Asian grindings down 3.4% to 213,898 MT in Q1. Looking ahead, ICCO forecasts a surplus of 142,000 MT for 2024/25—the first surplus in four years—alongside a expected production increase of 7.8% year-on-year to 4.84 MMT.
