On April 12, 2026, May ICE NY cocoa rose by 24 points (+0.74%) to reach a one-week high, while May ICE London cocoa increased by 20 points (+0.83%). The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has inflated shipping rates and costs for cocoa importers, affecting cocoa prices. In contrast, ample supplies from the Ivory Coast, which reported 1.46 million metric tons (MMT) shipped this marketing year—a 0.7% increase year-on-year—are putting downward pressure on prices.
Cocoa inventories on ICE have reached a 19.5-month high of 2,540,983 bags. Concerns about demand were highlighted by a reported 5% expected decline in chocolate sales during the Easter holiday season. The Ghanaian government cut the official price for cocoa farmers by nearly 30% for the 2025/26 season, while the Ivory Coast plans a 57% pay reduction amid a projected decline in production of 10.8% year-on-year.
Bullish signals include anticipated reductions in production from both Ivory Coast and Ghana, which account for over half of the world’s cocoa supply. Meanwhile, the International Cocoa Organization raised its global cocoa surplus estimate for 2024/25 to 75,000 MT, marking the first surplus in four years. As of April 7, the Commitment of Traders report indicated funds hold the most significant short position in NY cocoa in over three years, potentially setting the stage for a short-covering rally.
