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On Monday, March ICE NY cocoa (CCH26) rose by $0.52 (+0.94%) to reach a two-week high, while March ICE London cocoa #7 (CAH26) increased by $0.24 (+0.59%). This price uptick follows the International Cocoa Organization’s (ICCO) reduced global cocoa surplus estimate for 2024/25 to 49,000 MT from 142,000 MT, and a cut to the production estimate to 4.69 million metric tons (MMT) from 4.84 MMT.
Data from the Ivory Coast indicates cocoa shipments of 718,451 MT from October 1 to November 30, marking a 2.1% decrease from 734,026 MT in the same timeframe last year. Additionally, ICE cocoa inventories in U.S. ports have fallen to an 8.5-month low of 1,709,185 bags.
However, concerns about weak global cocoa demand persist, with Hershey reporting disappointing Halloween chocolate sales, while the Cocoa Association of Asia noted a 17% year-on-year drop in Q3 grindings to the smallest volume in nine years. In contrast, Nigeria’s Cocoa Association projects an 11% decrease in production to 305,000 MT for 2025/26.
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