On September 11, 2023, September ICE NY cocoa closed up +110 (+1.35%), and September ICE London cocoa #7 closed up +71 (+1.23%). Cocoa prices rose sharply due to a slowdown in Ivory Coast cocoa exports, which reached 1.73 million metric tons (MMT) from October 1 to July 13—an increase of 6.8% compared to last year but a decline from a much larger 35% increase seen in December. Heavy rains are reportedly disrupting the mid-crop cocoa harvest in Ivory Coast.
Concerns over weak global demand have influenced recent cocoa price fluctuations, with chocolate maker Barry Callebaut AG recently lowering its sales volume guidance for the second time in three months. In addition, the Ghana Cocoa Board projected an 8.3% year-on-year increase in the 2025/26 cocoa crop to 650,000 MT. Additionally, ICE-monitored cocoa inventories in US ports hit 2,338,724 bags as of September 11, modestly below a 10-month high.
Quality issues with Ivory Coast mid-crop cocoa are also affecting prices, with processors rejecting 5% to 6% of truckloads due to poor quality—a significant increase from 1% during the main crop. The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) has revised its global cocoa deficit for 2023/24 to -494,000 MT, the largest deficit in over 60 years, while forecasting a surplus of 142,000 MT for 2024/25.
