On Tuesday, September ICE NY cocoa (CCU25) closed up +15 (+0.17%), while September ICE London cocoa #7 (CAU25) rose +68 (+1.18%). This movement follows a 3% increase on Monday, attributed to concerns about dry weather in West Africa, which threatens cocoa crops in Ivory Coast and Ghana.
Cocoa inventories monitored by ICE in US ports fell to a two-month low of 2,248,784 bags. Ivory Coast’s exports from October 1 to August 10 reached 1.78 million metric tons, a 6.6% increase from last year but a decrease from a 35% increase noted in December. Additionally, Ivory Coast’s mid-crop quality has declined, with 5% to 6% of truckloads being poor quality, compared to 1% in the main crop. This season, production estimates for the mid-crop are 400,000 MT, down 9% from 440,000 MT last year.
Weak chocolate demand negatively impacts cocoa prices, as seen with Lindt & Spruengli and Barry Callebaut lowering sales volume forecasts. Meanwhile, European and Asian cocoa grindings fell by 7.2% and 16.3% year-on-year, respectively. The International Cocoa Organization also revised its 2023/24 global cocoa deficit to -494,000 MT, marking the largest deficit in over 60 years.
