**Cocoa Prices Rise Amid Mixed Supply Trends**
On September 4, cocoa prices saw an increase, with December ICE NY cocoa (CCZ26) rising by $0.58 (+0.97%) and December ICE London cocoa #7 (CAZ26) by $0.55 (+1.27%). This uptick follows a proposal by Ghana’s cocoa regulator to raise farmers’ pay by 6% for the 2026/27 season, potentially prompting farmers to withhold sales in search of higher prices.
Conversely, the Ivory Coast reported a significant increase in cocoa shipments, with 2.14 million metric tons (MMT) shipped in the current marketing year, an 18% rise from the previous year. Additionally, the Ivory Coast’s cocoa production is projected at 1.8 MMT for the upcoming season, down 18% due to poor pod development. Ghana is also anticipating a 13% decrease in cocoa production for 2026/27, estimated at 650,000 metric tons, amidst the threat of crop diseases and adverse weather patterns linked to El Niño.
The global cocoa market dynamics reflect contrasting trends, with rising inventories in the U.S. (now at a two-year high of 3,415,952 bags) and challenges from a potential decrease in output from West Africa. This environment is likely to influence future price movements as traders monitor the impact of weather and disease on cocoa production.
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