March ICE NY cocoa futures (CCH26) closed at $4,184 per metric ton, up $27 (+0.65%), while March ICE London cocoa #7 (CAH26) rose $29 (+1.01%) on Thursday. This increase follows a recent decline, with London cocoa hitting a 2.25-year low and NY cocoa a 2-year low last week, primarily due to abundant global supplies and declining demand.
StoneX projects a global cocoa surplus of 287,000 metric tons for the 2025/26 season, while the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) reported a 4.2% year-over-year rise in global cocoa stocks to 1.1 million metric tons. Barry Callebaut AG revealed a 22% drop in sales volume in its cocoa division for the quarter ending November 30, citing weakened market demand. Additionally, Q4 European cocoa grindings fell by 8.3% year-over-year to 304,470 metric tons, the lowest in 12 years.
Favorable growing conditions in West Africa are expected to enhance cocoa harvests, with the Ivory Coast’s crop count 7% above the five-year average. Despite a global supply tightening outlook, Ivory Coast’s exports dropped by 3.2% year-over-year to 1.20 million metric tons for the current marketing year, while Nigeria’s cocoa exports declined by 7% to 35,203 metric tons in November.
