On Wednesday, May ICE NY cocoa (CCK26) closed up +45 (+1.49%) and May ICE London cocoa #7 (CAK26) rose +34 (+1.59%), recovering from recent lows. This uptick was driven by dollar weakness and concerns over increased shipping costs affecting cocoa exports, compounded by the ongoing war in Iran which has disrupted shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
Despite the recent price increase, cocoa prices remain in a seven-week downtrend, with NY cocoa falling to a 2.75-year low last week amid robust global supplies and slack demand. The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) forecasts a global cocoa surplus of 75,000 MT for the 2024/25 season, an increase from previous estimates, and projects an 8.4% rise in production to 4.7 million metric tons. Meanwhile, cocoa inventories at ICE have reached a 6.5-month high of 2,201,701 bags as a result of dwindling farm-gate prices in Ivory Coast and Ghana, which produce over half of the world’s cocoa.
