On March 25, 2024, cocoa prices on the ICE NY exchange closed up by 42 points (+0.72%) due to expectations of approximately $2 billion in index-related buying following the inclusion of cocoa futures in the Bloomberg Commodity Index starting in January. In contrast, cocoa prices on the ICE London exchange closed down by 15 points (-0.35%).
Despite the recent uptick in prices in New York, ICE-monitored cocoa inventories in U.S. ports fell to a 9.5-month low of 1,636,159 bags. In the Ivory Coast, the world’s largest cocoa producer, farmers have shipped 970,945 MT of cocoa in the current marketing year (October 1 to December 21), a decrease of 0.1% from the same period last year. Furthermore, favorable weather conditions in West Africa have reportedly boosted cocoa pod counts to 7% above the five-year average.
The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) has revised its global 2024/25 cocoa surplus estimate down to 49,000 MT from 142,000 MT. Additionally, Rabobank has reduced its forecast for the 2025/26 global cocoa surplus to 250,000 MT, a drop from 328,000 MT. Cocoa demand remains weak, with significant declines noted in global grindings and disappointing chocolate sales reported by major manufacturers.
