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March ICE NY cocoa (CCH26) rose by 0.16% to +9, while March ICE London cocoa #7 (CAH26) increased by 1.55% to +63. This marked a continuation of last Friday’s rally, with NY cocoa reaching a 3.5-week high and London cocoa a 3-week high. The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) recently revised its global 2024/25 cocoa surplus estimate down to 49,000 MT from 142,000 MT, and production estimates to 4.69 MMT from 4.84 MMT.
ICE-monitored cocoa inventories in U.S. ports fell to an 8.5-month low of 1,681,896 bags as of last Friday. Additionally, Ivorian cocoa shipments totaled 804,288 MT from October 1 to December 7, a 1.8% decrease from 819,425 MT year-over-year. The favorable weather in West Africa is reported to be improving cocoa yields, with current estimates indicating that the cocoa pod count in West Africa is 7% above the five-year average.
Global cocoa demand is under pressure, with Q3 cocoa grindings in Asia falling 17% year-on-year and a 4.8% decrease in Europe. Hershey’s CEO noted disappointing Halloween chocolate sales, which typically account for 18% of annual U.S. candy sales. Furthermore, Nigeria’s cocoa production is expected to decline by 11% year-on-year for 2025/26, leading to potential constraints on global supply.
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