**Cocoa Prices Rise Amid Supply and Weather Concerns**
On Friday, July ICE NY cocoa (CCN26) closed up +69 (+1.86%), and July ICE London cocoa #7 (CAN26) closed up +7 (+0.24%). This increase followed a week of price weakness caused by abundant supply, with the Ivory Coast reporting cocoa shipments reaching 1.95 million metric tons (MMT) since the start of the marketing year, an 18.9% increase from the previous year.
Cocoa production from the Ivory Coast is projected to decline by 10.8% year-on-year to 1.65 MMT for 2025/26. Additional pressure on prices arises from weak global demand, as the National Confectioners Association reported a 3.8% decrease in North American cocoa grindings, while European grindings fell by 7.8%, the lowest in 17 years. Conversely, cocoa grindings in Asia showed unexpected growth of 5.2%.
Rising cocoa inventories in the U.S., which reached a 1.75-year high of 2,929,074 bags, coupled with weather-related concerns due to a developing El Niño pattern, are creating uncertainty in the market. Additionally, reduced cocoa exports from Nigeria, affected by a 20% year-on-year decline in April, support price stability as forecasts indicate a potential smaller global cocoa surplus.
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