Cocoa prices surged on Monday, with July ICE NY cocoa up 12.60% to close at $4,698 and July ICE London cocoa rising 11.88% to $3,469. Concerns over the potential emergence of El Niño conditions, projected by NOAA to have a 61% chance between May and July, could impact cocoa production in West Africa, prompting the rise in prices.
Additionally, early surveys indicate below-average cherelle formation on cocoa trees in West Africa, raising expectations of a weak main harvest starting in October. Global cocoa surplus estimates for the 2026/27 season have also been reduced significantly, from 267,000 MT to 149,000 MT, further supporting price increases.
Meanwhile, current exports from the Ivory Coast show stability, with shipments totaling 1.57 million metric tons, up 0.6% year-on-year, while Nigerian cocoa exports in February fell 4.6% to 40,110 MT. The recent cut in cocoa farmer payments in Ghana by nearly 30% and in the Ivory Coast by 57% for the upcoming harvest underscores ongoing challenges in the industry.
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