Cocoa prices have surged to two-week highs, with March ICE NY cocoa (CCH26) rising by 4.96% to $6,287 and March ICE London cocoa #7 (CAH26) increasing by 6.52% to $4,496. These price hikes are attributed to a slowdown in cocoa arrivals at ports in Ivory Coast, which saw deliveries drop 27% to 59,708 MT during the week ending December 28 compared to the same week last year. Cumulative shipments in this marketing year are also down 2.0%, totaling 1.029 MMT from October 1 to December 28.
Support for cocoa prices is bolstered by expectations of index-related buying following cocoa’s addition to the Bloomberg Commodity Index in January, which may attract up to $2 billion in buying. Additionally, ICE-monitored cocoa inventories in U.S. ports have fallen to a near nine-month low of 1,626,105 bags.
On the global supply outlook, the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) revised its 2024/25 cocoa surplus estimate down to 49,000 MT, significantly lower than a previous estimate of 142,000 MT. Meanwhile, cocoa production estimates have also seen a decline, with Nigeria anticipating an 11% decrease to 305,000 MT for the 2025/26 crop year.
