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As of today, December ICE NY cocoa (CCZ25) is up +129 (+1.71%), while December ICE London cocoa #7 (CAZ25) has risen +3 (+0.06%). Cocoa prices are increasing due to a weaker dollar, prompting short covering in cocoa futures. This comes after NY cocoa fell to a 1-month low and London cocoa hit a 6-week low earlier this week amid demand concerns.
Cocoa inventories monitored by ICE have reached a 3.25-month low, recorded at 2,160,401 bags. Despite a 5.9% increase in shipments from Ivory Coast this marketing year, total exports were down compared to previous months. Quality of the mid-crop cocoa is reportedly poor, with about 5% to 6% deemed low quality. Additionally, Nigeria’s cocoa production is expected to decrease by 11% to 305,000 MT for the upcoming crop year.
International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) reported a global cocoa deficit of -494,000 MT for 2023/24, the largest in over 60 years, with production down 13.1% year-on-year. For 2024/25, ICCO forecasts a surplus of 142,000 MT and a 7.8% increase in global cocoa production.
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