Cocoa prices surged on May 3, 2023, with July ICE NY cocoa rising by 12.63% to $4,694 per metric ton and July ICE London cocoa increasing by 11.82% to $3,467. This spike is attributed to concerns over an impending El Niño weather pattern, which the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration estimates has a 61% probability of impacting West African cocoa production.
Early surveys forecast below-average cocoa crop formation for the 2026/27 harvest, beginning in October. Additionally, StoneX has revised its 2026/27 global cocoa surplus estimate down to 149,000 metric tons from 267,000 metric tons due to potential risks from El Niño. Despite a 1.3% decline in chocolate sales in North America, major chocolate producers are reporting stable demand, which is supporting current pricing trends.
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