On Wednesday, September ICE NY cocoa (CCU25) closed up +291 (+3.57%) and September ICE London cocoa #7 (CAU25) closed up +114 (+2.13%), reaching 1.5-week highs. Concerns over a slowdown in Ivory Coast cocoa exports, which saw shipments at 1.74 MMT from October 1 to July 20—up 6.1% year-on-year but lower than December’s 35% increase—are driving prices. Additionally, ICE-monitored cocoa inventories in US ports hit a 10.5-month high at 2,368,141 bags.
Further bearish indicators include a reported decrease in Q2 cocoa grindings across Europe, Asia, and North America, with European grindings down by 7.2% year-on-year to 331,762 MT. Ghana, the world’s second-largest cocoa producer, is also expected to increase production by 8.3% in the 2025/26 crop, contributing to negative price pressures.
Moreover, chocolate manufacturers Lindt & Spruengli AG and Barry Callebaut AG have reduced their sales volume guidance due to weakening chocolate demand, with the latter reporting a 9.5% drop in its sales volume for March-May, marking the largest quarterly decline in a decade. Quality concerns regarding the Ivory Coast’s mid-crop cocoa are prevalent, as processors reject 5% to 6% of beans due to poor quality, exacerbated by unfavorable weather conditions.
